GUESS WORLD ENERGY SITUATION IN 2030’S

The pace of the global economic recovery holds the key to energy prospects for the next several years, but it will be governments’ responses to the twin challenges of climate change and energy security that will shape the future of energy in the longer term. The level and pattern of energy use worldwide varies markedly across the three scenarios in 2010’s Outlook, which differ according to assumptions about energy and environmental policies. In the New Policies Scenario, world primary energy demand is expected around 15,750 Mtoe in 2003, it increases by 36% between 2008 and 2035, or 1.2% per year on average. This compares with 2% per year over the previous 27-year period. The scenario assumes cautious implementation of the policy commitments and plans announced by countries around the world, including the national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-fuel subsidies.

Reporter: Do Manh Hao, Student no. 55944006

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In the New Policies Scenario, non-OECD countries account for 93% of the projected increase in global energy demand, reflecting mainly faster rates of growth of economic activity. China, where demand has surged over the past decade, contributes 36% to the projected growth in global energy use, its demand rising by 75% between 2008 and 2035 (our preliminary data suggest that, although Americans consume more on a per-capita basis, China overtook the United States in 2009 to become the world's largest energy user). Aggregate energy demand in OECD countries rises very slowly. Nonetheless, by 2035, the United States remains the world’s second largest energy consumer behind China.

Global demand for each fuel source increases, with fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas - accounting for over 50% of the increase in total primary energy demand. Rising fossil-fuel prices for end uses, resulting from upward price pressures in international markets and increasingly onerous carbon penalties in many countries, together with policies to encourage energy savings and switching to low carbon energy sources, help to restrain demand growth for all three fuels.

Oil remains the dominant fuel in the primary energy mix to 2035. Nonetheless, its share of the primary fuel mix diminishes as higher oil prices and government measures to promote fuel efficiency lead to further switching away from oil in all sectors. Demand for coal rises through to around 2020 and starts to decline towards the end of the Outlook period. Natural gas is set to play a central role in meeting the world’s energy needs for at least the next two-and-a-half decades. Global natural gas demand, which fell in 2009 with the economic downturn, is set to resume its long-term upward trajectory from 2010. Natural gas demand increases by 44% between 2008 and 2035 – an average rate of increase of 1.4% per year. Growth in demand for gas far surpasses that for the other fossil fuels due to its more favorable environmental and practical attributes, and constraints on how quickly low-carbon energy technologies can be deployed. China’s gas demand grows fastest, accounting for more than one-fifth of the increase in global demand to 2035. The Middle East leads the expansion of gas production, its output doubling by 2035. Over a third of the global increase in gas output comes from unconventional sources — shale gas, coal bed methane and tight gas — in the United States and, increasingly, from other regions. A glut in global gas-supply capacity, which could peak in 2011, will keep the pressure on gas exporters to move away from oil price indexation, notably in Europe. Unconventional oil is set to play an increasingly important role in world oil supply through to 2035, regardless of what governments do to curb demand. It meets about 10% of world oil demand in all three scenarios by 2035 compared with less than 3% today. In the New Policies Scenario, output of unconventional oil in aggregate rises from 2.3 mb/d in 2009 to 9.5 mb/d in 2035. Canadian oil sands and Venezuelan extra-heavy oil dominate the mix, but coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids and, to a lesser extent, oil shales also make a growing contribution in the second half of the Outlook period. In the New Policies Scenario, oil-sands production alone climbs from about 1.3 mb/d in 2009 to 4.2 mb/d in 2035, making an important contribution to the world’s energy security. The share of nuclear power increases from 6% in 2008 to 8% in 2035. The use of modern renewable energy — including hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern biomass and marine energy — triples between 2008 and 2035, its share in total energy demand increasing from 7% to 14%.

Proved reserves of crude oil and NGL on global scale is estimated approximately 1,239 billion barrels, the energy resource can be exhausted by 2050. However, reserves of shale oil are quite high at 4.8 trillion barrels. Natural gas was identified appearing on 103 countries in the world with a reserves approximately 186 trillion barrels, the resources is forecasted be exhausted by 54 years. Coal reserves is about 860 billion tones in which 405bt of bituminous, 260bt sub-bituminous and 195bt of lignite. It is abundance and widespread with commercial mining taking place in about 70 countries and expecting to use for 128 years. In 2008, approximately 43,880 tU uranium is produced world-widely and according to world energy council, it will be exhausted around 2070.

Literature cited/reference materials

IEA, 2009. World energy outlook 2009. Lodon, United Kingdom.

IEA, 2010. World energy outlook 2010 factsheet. 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France.

World Energy Council, 2010. 2010 survey of energy resources. London W1B5LT United Kingdom.

New Energy Foundation. Energy situation. http://www.nef.or.jp/english/new/index.html.